We support traders in the marketing of renewable energies on the electricity exchange and electricity balancing market and offer forecasts and projections of wind and solar input especially made for grid operations.
Our servers calculate all prediction data centrally and forward it to you in standard formats via the internet.
Previento & Suncast: reliable power predictions
Precise forecasts of wind and solar power supply for power trading or grid operations form a part of our core competency. With our prediction systems Previento and Suncast, we deliver precise forecasts of the wind and solar power input for any on- and offshore sites worldwide as well as for control zones and grid node levels. By optimally combining weather models, we predict power output from 5 minutes to 15 days in advance at a high time resolution and with a very short-term adaptation to online measurements.
Whether you are an energy provider, power trader or grid operator, Previento and Suncast can efficiently integrate the fluctuating input from wind and solar energy into your daily business both technically and economically.
Operational wind and solar forecast systems
In order to calculate a qualified solar or wind power forecast, Previento and Suncast employ numerical data from all leading weather services, making use of their individual strengths. The complex calculation model applied here obtains a high degree of prediction accuracy through the optimal combination of various weather models, together with the integration of the surrounding wind and solar farm terrain.
Our time-tested KombiBox procedure gives a higher priority to those forecasts having the lowest prediction error in a respective weather situation.
Moreover, Previento and Suncast calculate the uncertainty associated with a given prediction situation, in addition to the actual prediction value. This is because the accuracy of forecasts varies according to the weather situation.
Extreme weather conditions and curtailment
Our power forecasts are constantly optimized for difficult weather conditions or extreme situations, among these fog, snow or Sahara dust and cold-fronts, convection currents or instability. Other factors influencing power production are also factored in, such as shutdowns due to night-time, storms or bats, as are installation power consumption, market curtailment and curtailment on the part of the grid operator.
Consideration of curtailments
Our forecasts are characterized by their modular structure, i.e. custom power predictions can be optionally included as modular "building blocks". A crucial building block is our curtailment forecast. Here, the input curtailment of renewable energies by the grid operator due to bottlenecks in the control zone (EinsMan) is taken into account. We therefore always offer two variants of our forecasts:
In the forecast of the actual input, all power reducing curtailments due to EinsMan curtailments from grid operators, as well as technical (e.g. maintenance, turbine defects) and scheduled availability (e.g. night-time shutdowns, shadow casting) are considered.
The forecast of the technically possible input only accounts for all technical and scheduled availability. Market-based shutdowns as well as EinsMan curtailment are not calculated in this case.
In order to validate the EinsMan forecast, actions published by the distribution and transmission grid operators are incorporated. EinsMan predictions are available on many separate levels, e.g. individual farms, portfolios or countries.
Combination of different providers
There is also the possibility of combining our prediction models with those of other providers. For this purpose, our meta-forecast determines the optimal statistical weights with the help of the quality of the model's historic performance. The determination of the weighing factors can take place automatically or manually.
With an additional short-term correction, one can also optimally react to weather-dependent changes to model combinatorics, making a high-quality prediction possible even in difficult weather conditions. This applies to long predictions with a horizon of over 4 days as well, as the use of meta predictions allow for an above-average prediction performance.
Our meteorological forecast and additional situational awareness reports prepare grid operators and direct marketers in advance for extreme weather situations.
Real-time warning reports make information available fast and effectively, particularly in critical situations such as storms, icing, fog, lightning or Sahara dust, where the supply feed from renewable energies can be very uncertain.