Analysis of the forecasting system
in the Dominican Republic
As part of the GIZ project "Promoting a Low-Carbon Energy System for the Achievement of the Climate Objectives of the Dominican Republic", energy & meteo systems investigated the prediction system for wind and solar power on the Caribbean island. Due to significant discrepancies between electricity predictions made by wind and solar park operators and the actual power production, solutions were found to enable more precise power predictions. These power predictions are becoming increasingly important for the Dominican energy infrastructure due to the expected expansion of wind and solar installations.
energy & meteo system first analyzed the prediction models used by the park operators as well as the sequence of processes among plant operators, prediction service providers and the grid operator Organismo Coordinador. To achieve a structural improvement, energy & meteo systems advised the introduction of a centralized prediction system for intraday updates of the predictions on the basis of real-time measurements from wind and solar parks. With the help of predictions prepared on its own for selected wind and solar parks in the Dominican Republic, energy & meteo systems was able to demonstrate that, despite challenging site locations, significantly more precise prediction results were achievable.
The results of the analysis and the recommendations derived from it for the improvement of the solar and wind power forecasting system were summarized in a report (in Spanish), available here.